Winning at Sports Betting on NFL

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Sports Betting on NFL

Welcome to the first in a series on NFL sports betting that will examine some of the finer points in sports betting for newcomers to the idea of trying to get the edge on the bookie. Many of the ideas will be applicable to other sports betting, but we’ll be focusing on football. Much of this stuff will be old-hat to old-timers but I hope many people will get at least a few ideas from the articles.
The video is explaining how to win at NFL betting and why the bookmaker changes the line during the betting phase.

In sports betting, line movement is complicated and these are only the basics. Detailing line movements and other things a bookie can do to even up the betting would take pages. One thing that the bookie could do instead of moving the line is to say “It’s still 6.5 but Jets bettors have to lay $11.50 to win $10 and Patriots backers can lay only $10.50 to win $10.” This is called “moving the money instead of the line”. Think about this one. It’s especially common when the line is exactly 3 points, a football winning margin that actually occurs a lot.

Why do different places have different Lines on the same game?
Suppose you have access to several bookies and you find they have different lines, like:
Bookie A: Jets by 6.5 (from the Newspaper)
Bookie B: Jets by 6
Bookie C: Jets by 7
Everybody but the bookie who blindly follows the paper is trying to balance the Jets bets with the Patriots bets. Maybe Bookie B is in Boston so he is a little lopsided on people betting for the Patriots — so he’s trying to entice Jets bettors to step up. Maybe Bookie C is in the Bronx (so he has too much money on the Jets at 6.5), and maybe some clients bet favorite teams a lot instead of underdog teams, so they’re looking for more money on the Patriots right now.

In the above example if you like the Jets you’ll take your business to Bookie B because if the Jets win by exactly 7 you’re a winner, and if the Jets win by exactly 6, it’s the only shop at which you don’t lose. If you like the Patriots, in this example Bookie C is the place to play because the Patriots get more points as a head-start there.


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